Wednesday, October 31, 2012

My Election Predictions

For Halloween this year, I dressed as a Fortune Teller seemed appropriate with all the predictions everyone has been making.  It was a big hit at the parties, and on Social media. I'm not sure if anyone even realized it was a political costume. Which it wasn't originally to be honest, but once I had spent half the night talking to friends about the election,  I realized it's dual purpose value.

You see I'm the one that everyone knows is "Political". Sure I know tons of Conservatives, Liberals, hell I even know a few self proclaimed Socialists, but I'm the one that "Knows things..." Or at least that what my friends think.  If anything happens that might require them to turn on cable news during a non-election year, I get an e-mail, or a phone call or both. I'm okay with that. I think they are called "Normal People".

I had my moment of clarity, when after being peppered with questions I said, "Well, let me look into my crystal ball...." then it dawned on me that I actually had one. 

At this stage in the game everyone is making Predictions, everyone.  From Former Chiefs of Staff to late night talk show hosts, to your next door neighbor, to some chick that you can't even remember from High School on facebook,  they are all predicting something.  I thought I'd have a little fun with my happy coincidence of a Halloween costume and share a few of my thoughts on the future.

I don't think it takes a special gift to see that the Momentum has shifted to Mitt's favor. His constant growth in the polls indicates to me, the people Running the polls see what is happening. If you follow me on twitter or read much of anything I've ever written I give little to no credence to polls. While there are those that have their value, way too many people make the Polls the story, not what the Candidates are actually doing, saying, the crowd size etc.  Which to me gives you a much better idea what is really going on with a campaign. You can get a better gauge of what is happening, just by looking around your neighborhood. Listen to what people are really saying. This economy sucks.  People want a change of leadership. Don't need a poll or ESP to tell you that.

Early polling is notoriously incorrect, yet it stops no one from allowing it to affect their narrative or story on the Race.  What also happens is that once the election nears, non-ethical pollsters can manipulate their polls by asking different questions, or just altering the sample or even the results.  These are just some of the many reasons that I hate polls.  I'm not suggesting all pollsters do this of course, some will be adjusting their numbers to meet a more realistic outcome as the electoral map picture becomes clearer.  So I predict you'll see partisan polls spiking all over the place, but those who consider themselves legitimate polling places, evening out to what amounts to a more realistic Mitt Romney victory.

Yes, I do believe that if Americans vote like I think we're about to see on Tuesday, Mitt Romney will win this election.  I've used my very unique gift to decipher the code..... if Barack Obama is still trying to win over college kids and Women this close to the election....Its not a good sign for him.  But I also believe in running like you are ten points behind, so I take nothing for granted.  We must get out the Vote, and so far it looks like we're doing a good job of that according to early voting numbers. A joke is floating around twitter and e-mail that says: To the man in line on election day: How long have you been waiting to vote? His answer: Four Years.  Yeah. It's kinda like that.

Now I would predict that Barack and Michelle Obama would vote for themselves, but they've actually already done that.  Don't expect any photo ops in the voting booths for them this year. Yeah.  It appears to me that their entire campaign strategy was "Vote Early".  Now this could be for one of two reasons.  One possibility is that the Obama campaign's arrogance was that if early voting favored him, his Media would then make his reelection inevitable. Which obviously isn't happening. Or the more probable reason is that Obama and his people knew that the truth about Benghazi and lord knows what else would be coming out prior to the election...people can't "uncast" a vote.

In fact Michelle Obama made a prediction of her own a few weeks ago, suggesting that You should vote early because the media might try and release something on the eve of the election, or something.  So much fail in that line of thinking, I don't know where to begin. Let's start with... who wants people to make a decision before they know the facts about their candidate? In this Mrs. Obama is speaking directly to an Obama voter, as they would be the only one influenced by any late breaking revelations. And are We to believe that Mrs. Obama really thinks the Mainstream Media would intentionally do anything to hurt Obama's campaign? We know better.

It tells me you've got a campaign still trying to convince their core voting base to pull the lever for them.  A scary place to be this close to election day. (I'm sorry I couldn't help myself.)

As for that media 'firestorm" I forsee it...Never.  Hurricane Sandy's heartbreaking destruction has offered them a wanted distraction from Obama's failing agenda and now campaign.  While they may be forced at some point this week to mention the cover up of the attacks on the US compound in Benghazi, I suspect you'll hear it in an entirely different context. Expect something like:  "Republicans amp up Desperate attacks, accuse President of Lying Abandoning Dying Americans".  Take out Desperate and it's much more accurate.

In any event, the Media will continue it's manic like coverage of what ever someone writes on their teleprompter.  The Ron Burgundys of network and cable news will spew nonsensical advice to both candidates.  Interviewing Obama's supporters who will scream at us "We're Winning, Even It Doen't Look Like it"...this will be played out in many different word combinations, but the message is the same:  If we shriek it enough times, it will be true.  Making desperate comments that don't even make sense. Pundits will be scolding Obama like a high school football coach on steroids. Demanding he say this or that.  All the while consoling each other on what they can no longer avoid....the very real possibility that Mitt Romney is going to win.

I don't see the Media helping Romney by airing stories on Obama's policies and failures.  In fact I'd say that you'll see more "disappearing headlines".  Remember when "Likeability" was a huge issues, until Romney pulled ahead.  Poof! Gone. Haven't seen a story on it since. Like magic.

No tarot cards needed to see how each man will respond in this situation.  Being that past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior, I'm willing to say that Mitt continues to make his case to the American people through actions and deeds, like donating his buses and supplies, not just stump speeches and photo ops.  On the other hand, I'm seeing a lot more of sneaking "Forward" into Hurricane Sandy press conferences for Obama.

My final prediction is that when this whole thing shakes out the real story of the 2012 election will be the voters.  I suspect that the models from previous elections won't fit the results.  I believe that the American electorate is shifting.  Single issue voters aren't as prevalent.  I see a future where Mitt Romney is President and identity politics are a thing of the past.  A wonderful result of the Tea Party movement, a more informed and involved public.  As I've mentioned before, the MSM would have you believe the Tea Party is gone, as though the 2012 elections didn't happen. As though the elections in Wisconsin, just this past June didn't happen.  Now that is just wishful thinking. 

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